Expectations game

Analysis: Obama among the winners in Iowa | Reuters

I have to say I'm a little disappointed in Reuters and Gergen (who's quoted in that piece) for this analysis. There's two major problems with it. One: an overemphasis on the anti-Romney vote. It's there. But calling it that suggests the problem is Mitt Romney personally (which is, to some degree, true). However, that ignores the fact that the attempts to find a far right conservative to centre-right Romney is part of a normal primary campaign process. Nearly every political party in Western democracies have a conflict (or two) between moderate and extreme factions (even Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland does, and it's the extremist party in a system where the defining line between the four parties is nationalism vs. unionism, with one moderate and one extremist party on each side of that line). To what degree is the oft-cited "anti-Romney" vote simply an anti-moderate vote? I don't know, and I'm not sure it can be known or, even if it can be known, that the appropriate data has been collected to let it be known. But calling it all anti-Romney is misleading and inaccurate.

Two: falling victim to the expectations game. Romney wasn't expected to win in Iowa. The article takes care to mention Santorum's scant organization and money, but fails to mention the relatively little amount of time and money Romney spent there. He spent, like, 10 or so days in the state in the lead-up to the caucus. Retail politics may not be king anymore, even in Iowa, but it's not dead either. Romney made the tactical error of raising expectations in the two to three days leading up to the caucus, yes. And the other candidates in the field were perfectly willing to encourage that. The fact remains, though, that Romney beat everyone else in a state known to care more about social conservatism. It's not a coincidence that Huckabee won there four years ago.

If in fact President Obama's advisers (and maybe him) are celebrating the results, then more fools they. These results make it more likely Romney will wrap up the nomination quickly. If Santorum can last until South Carolina as a top tier candidate, he and Gingrich and Congressman Paul may well split the far right vote three ways: Tea Party types gravitating toward Congressman Paul, social conservatives toward Santorum, and Gingrich grabbing some of each with perhaps a little bit of stealing from Romney as well. That kind of splitting could bode well for Gingrich, if he can successfully get his foot in the door of each of those three constituencies. If he can't, then Romney could take South Carolina and that'd be the ball game. A candidate taking the first three states, including two that have the group most wary of him (social conservatives) as a significant factor? Florida will still get media attention and people won't be quite ready to declare the nomination fight over until it happens, even if Romney takes all three of the first states. The latest statewide polling in Florida had Romney and Gingrich tied with a huge number of undecideds (more than picked either of them, in fact). They won't be undecided anymore. And there in Florida, a swing state by any definition, it seems unlikely that the balance of the voters will go to Gingrich without a win from him in South Carolina.

This nomination fight may well be on its way to a relatively easy win for Romney. His standing could be clear by the first of February, and that'll leave him the likes of Congressman Paul and (maybe, we'll see how he does) Santorum to use as foils and pivot to the middle. Meanwhile, President Obama would have to engage a much earlier than they would in a bruising nomination fight, thus beginning the depletion of the war chest earlier than they were planning on.

Tonight could have been better news for Romney (of course, any politician's night would be better with a larger margin of victory). But it was plenty good enough to be getting along with.