Fireside Blogging

"The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter." -Winston Churchill

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Location: United States

I'm just a McDonald's worker with a bachelor's degree in Political Science and a certificate in Political Communication from Ohio University.

Friday, January 6, 2012

The key point is... bullshit

Kathleen Sebelius: Curbing health-care costs : http://wapo.st/wu1fwN

This reads like an attempt on the part of the administration to justify Obamacare should the Supreme Court strike down the individual mandate. There are three points on cost-control.

The 80-20 thing, if anything, incentivizes insurance companies to raise their premiums. The rules about making increases over 10% public, with a reason for it posted online, at best could mean 9% increases annually (far above inflation) and could also just mean no inhibition if they all do it anyway.

The markets may help a bit, but out-of-pocket expenses on health care are really low in this country, around 12%, so people have little-to-no idea of the true worth of various procedures, plans, etcetera.

Both of those,points, ironically, put a heavy level of trust in the free market with no justification for thinking a free market solution will work. Historically it hasn't. That's how Obamacare came about in the first place.

The third point, her main point, is that by emphasizing prevention Obamacare addresses and fixes the underlying cause of health care's spiraling cost. This one is pure bullshit. Prevention saves lives. But the money spent on all the extra tests for people who are perfectly healthy makes the money saved by preventing more illnesses a wash.

The main cost-control mechanism in Obamacare, and the only one we have any reason to believe will be truly effective, is the individual mandate. Unfortunately for the Obama administration, there's a decent chance it could be struck down by SCOTUS as unconstitutional. Which, if the rest of the bill stands but it falls, could well lead to skyrocketing costs. Leaving us, at best, little better off a society with Obamacare than without it. And many of us will be worse off.

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